A bit by Sarah Zhang at The Atlantic (2/9/21) takes a pessimistic view of herd immunity ever being achieved within the U.S. The piece begins with an analogy for the idea, likening it to moist logs in a campfire. “If there’s sufficient immunity in a inhabitants — ‘you’ll be able to’t get the fireplace to start out, interval’,” Zhang writes, with the quote coming from an Emory College biologist. Zhang’s piece states that it turns into “downright unattainable” to attain herd immunity if vaccines solely stop severe COVID-19 reasonably than additionally stopping an infection with SARS-CoV-2. And whereas the vaccines clearly do stop severe sickness, the proof continues to be skinny on whether or not the vaccines stop an infection. A extra probably consequence, she writes, is that we by no means “cross the edge of herd immunity,” and that the immunity of people that get vaccinated plus the immunity of people that overcome SARS-CoV-2 infections “dampen” COVID-19, so the illness involves have an effect on us like frequent colds, “which often reinfect folks however not often critically.”
A extra optimistic take seems in a 2/9/21 put up by Katelyn Jetelina for her Your Native Epidemiologist publication. She estimates present U.S. herd immunity within the vary of 12 to 30% (I’ve rounded figures), together with these with antibodies from previous COVID-19 an infection and those that have acquired both one or each doses of a certified vaccine. In the event you add to that the share of people that intend to get vaccinated, that places us at 53% to 71% within the subsequent a number of months, per arithmetic and a few current polls she cites. Some unsure science lurks behind these figures, after all, and the variants add a wild card. As Jetelina writes, “I based mostly as we speak’s put up on [a goal of] 70% herd immunity, however many scientists at the moment are estimating that that is nearer to 90% with the brand new variants.”
Katherine J. Wu at The Atlantic wrote an excellent piece that explains why “unintended effects” from COVID-19 vaccines are “only a signal that safety [from our immune system] is kicking in because it ought to,” as she places it. She makes use of the instance of her husband’s current expertise with the vaccine to inform the story (he’s a hospital neurologist, she writes). Individuals are extra more likely to really feel unintended effects from the second of the 2 doses of both the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, per numerous studies. However that second publicity to the vaccine is essential for strengthening our immune response to SARS-CoV-2 within the wild. “The physique’s encore act, uncomfortable although it is perhaps, is proof that the immune system is solidifying its defenses towards the virus,” Wu writes. She explains that our immune system begins to “lose steam” towards invading substances, reminiscent of a vaccine, after a day or two. It takes a number of days for immune system weapons (T cells and B cells, after which antibodies) that may assault a overseas substance with “sniperlike molecules and cells” to kick in, she writes. That’s the place the booster or 2nd dose of a two-dose vaccine is available in and finishes the job of getting ready our immune system for exposures to SARS-CoV-2 (2/2/21).
A brand new video (2/11/21) at Scientific American explains the emergence of the brand new SARS-CoV-2 variants and why researchers usually are not sure that obtainable vaccines might be as efficient towards all of the variants. Within the video, Sarah Cobey of the College of Chicago compares the emergence of the brand new SARS-CoV-2 variants to genetic mixing amongst flu viruses, a course of that she loosely calls “viral intercourse.” This mixing happens when two completely different influenza viruses infect the identical cell after which swap and repackage elements to create new flu variants. With flu, that mixing means vaccine makers yearly have to vary the seasonal flu vaccine to make it more practical towards new flu variants. The query is whether or not such modifications might be obligatory with the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. A hopeful be aware within the piece: “Scientists say it should most likely be years earlier than the COVID-19 vaccine stops working if it ever does.” Reporting and enhancing by Sara Reardon; animation by Dominic Smith; enhancing by Jeffrey DelViscio.
A 2/3/21 opinion essay at STAT argues that “children don’t want COVID-19 vaccines to return to high school.” Dr. Vinay Prasad, a hematologist-oncologist on the College of California, San Francisco, bases his opinion on among the following: 1) children are far much less probably than adults to get COVID-19, significantly extreme or deadly circumstances of it; 2) typically, outbreaks in communities usually are not being traced to infections at faculties with sturdy distancing, masking and different security measures in place; and three) effectiveness and security research of COVID-19 vaccines for younger kids haven’t began, although some are underway older children. When prepared for analysis by the U.S. Meals and Drug Administration, COVID-19 vaccines for kids shouldn’t be licensed on an emergency-basis, as COVID-19 vaccines have been for adults, Prasad states, partially as a result of the illness shouldn’t be a catastrophic illness amongst children. The speed of hurt for youths is extra like that of the seasonal flu, he writes.
Some suggestions detailed on this 2/3/21 NPR piece by Maria Godoy for making your face masks extra protecting embrace: 1) double-masking, with a surgical masks below a material masks; 2) placing a filter reminiscent of two folded facial tissues in these two-layer masks which have pockets; 3) three-layer material masks; 4) utilizing knots or hair clips to enhance the match of your masks; and 5) shopping for KN95 or KF94 masks, so we will hold extra of the short-supply N95 medical-grade masks obtainable for well being care employees:
You would possibly take pleasure in “Issues which might be completely different in Europe,” by Sarah Hutto (1/25/21) in The New Yorker.
